The orthopedic surgery market is experiencing exciting growth in 2024, fueled by a wave of pent-up demand. After pandemic-related delays in 2020 and 2021, patients are finally scheduling postponed procedures, leading to a significant increase in surgeries. However, alongside this boom, concerns linger about the long-term sustainability of this growth.
Unveiling the Backlog: Statistics Speak Volumes
BONEZONE Research’s latest Orthopedic Market Data and Insights report (2024 edition) provides a data-driven perspective. The report reveals a staggering 42% increase in hip replacement surgeries and a 38% increase in knee replacement surgeries during the first quarter of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. This surge is attributed to catching up on missed procedures and an aging population requiring joint replacements. The American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons (AAOS) estimates that by 2030, over 7.7 million total knee replacements and 3.8 million total hip replacements will be performed annually in the United States alone [1]. This trend is mirrored globally, highlighting a significant and sustained demand for orthopedic procedures.
Backlog Breeze Expected to Extend, But for How Long?
Industry analysts at ORTHOWORLD project this “backlog effect” to propel the market into early 2025. Their forecast suggests a potential 12-15% year-over-year growth in orthopedic procedures in 2024. This growth is driven by a dual force: clearing the backlog and the ever-increasing demand from an aging population. However, ORTHOWORLD also cautions that the exact duration of the backlog effect is difficult to predict and hinges on several factors, including:
- Efficiency Improvements: If hospitals and surgical centers streamline scheduling and procedures, the backlog could be cleared faster, potentially leading to a shorter boom period.
- Severity of Delayed Procedures: The complexity of postponed surgeries can impact the pace at which they are addressed. Complex procedures may take longer to schedule and perform, extending the backlog effect.
- Emergence of New Variants: Unforeseen surges in COVID-19 cases or new variants could lead to renewed restrictions and delays in elective surgeries, impacting the backlog timeline.
Potential Disruptions on the Horizon: Navigating the Boom
Despite the current boom, BONEZONE’s report also highlights potential factors that could disrupt this growth trajectory. These include:
- Supply Chain Bottlenecks: Shortages of essential medical supplies and implants could hinder the ability to meet the rising demand for surgeries. A recent survey by the American Hospital Association found that 75% of hospitals are experiencing medical supply shortages [2].
- Staffing Shortages: A shortage of qualified orthopedic surgeons and surgical staff could limit the number of procedures performed. The American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons projects a 23,000 physician shortage by 2040 in the U.S. [3].
- Economic Downturn: A broader economic slowdown could lead to patients delaying elective surgeries due to insurance concerns or out-of-pocket costs.
The Backlog Effect: A Double-Edged Sword
While the backlog effect is currently driving growth in the orthopedic market, it’s crucial to acknowledge its impermanence. Once the backlog is cleared, the market could experience a correction period. The industry’s long-term success will depend on its ability to address potential disruptions and cater to the evolving needs of an aging population.
Beyond the Backlog: Investing in Innovation
Leading orthopedic companies are not solely relying on the backlog effect for growth. They are actively investing in advancements like:
- Robotic-Assisted Surgery: This technology offers improved accuracy, precision, and potentially faster patient recovery times.
- 3D Printing of Implants: Customization of implants for complex cases can lead to better patient outcomes.
- Telehealth Integration: Remote consultations and monitoring can improve patient access to care and reduce healthcare costs.
By focusing on innovation and addressing potential challenges, the orthopedic market can ensure its long-term success and navigate beyond the current backlog-driven boom. Citations:
- American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons: [https://www.aaos.org/]
- American Hospital Association: [https://www.aha.org/]
About the Author: Mousa Kadaei
